Will Karachi drown under the sea?

While recurrent floods and droughts have wreaked havoc across different provinces of the country over the past few years, global warming temperatures accompanied by rising sea levels pose a particular threat to Karachi — our largest city by the sea. This past year, evidence from various national and international sources, has cautioned that the biggest threat facing Pakistan is not terrorism but climate change instead.

One major impact of unchecked climate change is the potential havoc it can unleash on Karachi. With a population of approximately 17 million people, Karachi is not only our largest city, but also the economic hub for the country. It accounts for over 40 per cent of the nation’s GDP, and contributes around half of the country’s entire tax revenues. Therefore, environmental destruction of it would be a shock that Pakistan may understandably not be able to recover from.

Besides witnessing changing precipitation levels, and record high heatwaves in recent years, the looming threat to Karachi is the rising sea levels due to global warming. Karachi is located next to the Indus River Delta, where the Indus flows into the Arabian Sea. This delta is now almost at the same level as the Arabian Sea, which is causing seawater intrusion and creating havoc to the complex ecosystem of mangroves in the region. Mangrove forest cover has decreased from 400,000 hectares around the time of independence to 70,000 hectares due to not only rising sea levels, but also due to land grabbing and ill-planned development schemes. Development of the Port Qasim Power Project along the coastline of the Arabian Sea, is one such example.

Changes in the Indus delta’s ecosystem, caused both by man-made developments and climate change, have already displaced millions of Pakistanis who once lived in this region. Mangrove deforestation is particularly alarming since it plays a vital role in preventing erosion and buffering against natural calamities like cyclones and tsunamis.

While Karachi did experience a devastating tsunami back in the mid-1940s, a similar natural disaster would now be much more devastating. The UN recently conducted simulations based on a hypothetical 9.0 magnitude quake in the Indian Ocean, where the Arabian and Eurasian tectonic plates meet off the coast of Pakistan. This simulation event in turn triggered a catastrophic tsunami that could reach Karachi within one and a half hours, and be powerful enough to destroy the entire city. No early warning system could effectively evacuate the massive city, if such a natural calamity were to suddenly strike.

Moreover, the threat of rising sea levels exacerbated by climate change continues to loom over the city. Some parts of Karachi’s Malir are apparently going under water. With the current rate of climate change and the accompanying sea level rise, Karachi has an estimated 35 to 45 years before it completely submerges into the Arabian Sea, according to recent research by our National Institute of Oceanography.

Despite a range of pressing problems plaguing the country, Pakistan thus has little choice but to patronise its response to climate change in order to mitigate major environmental threats, such as that facing Karachi. Yet, compared to the annual defence budget, our government allocates a meagre proportion of funds to combat climate change, despite the potential seriousness of the threat, and the demonstrated damage already wreaked on our country due to climate-related disasters. Besides greater financial and political resolve to tackle climate change, Pakistan also needs greater assistance from specialised international agencies to help design and effectively implement comprehensive mitigation programmes, to avert unprecedented levels of hardship and catastrophe, which would be unleased, if a city like Karachi were to be lost to the sea in the coming decades.

Source: The Express Tribune

Climate change in Pakistan

LAHORE:During the past 62 years, the city witnessed warmest December in 2016 while an overall trend in rise of lowest minimum temperature has also been witnessed in various cities of Punjab.
Figures and data collected by The News revealed that in 1954, average lowest minimum temperature in the city was 1.7 degrees Celsius while in December 2016 this was 5.7 degrees Celsius.

Meteorological experts are linking the rise in lowest minimum temperature to the phenomenon of climate change and termed this a concerning issue.

“We can term the December 2016 the warmest December during the past 62 years,” said Sahibzad Khan, Director Meteorological Lahore while talking to the scribe. He said the change in weather pattern would put adverse impacts on agriculture and environment of the province while this can also result in various health issues.

Over the last five years, December had been getting progressively warmer in the provincial capital. Data showed that in recent years, the month remained relatively warmer, with the colder winters moving into the next year.

Data showed that the average maximum temperature in Lahore during December 2016 was 26.5 degrees Celsius, which was around 4 degree lower than the historic 30 degrees Celsius recorded in 1899. As per the data, Lahore had witnessed -2 degrees Celsius in 1910 and then -1 degrees Celsius in 2007. In 2015, Lahore’s lowest minimum temperature was 3 degrees Celsius, in 2014, it was 2 degrees Celsius, in 2013 it was 0.4 degrees Celsius, in 2012 it was 1.4, in 2011 it was 0.4 degrees Celsius, in 2010 it was 1.8 degrees Celsius, in 2009 it was 2 degrees Celsius and in 2008 it was 2 degrees Celsius.

Meteorologists also expressed surprise at the almost stagnant high day temperatures, particularly because the city has had foggy days. They said fog usually lowers day temperatures because of a drop in solar heating but in the provincial capital highest maximum temperature remained stagnant or witnessed a very minor change.

Sahibzad Khan predicted that the ongoing January may witness a longer cold spell than the previous years. “Mid-January, which once marked the end of winter in the provincial metropolis, is now the onset,” he said, adding the main reason for this extended winter forecast is delay in entry of western disturbances in the upper parts of the country. He predicted that January 2017 may witness colder nights and warmer days in comparison with the previous years.

He said continued burning of fossil fuels is spewing greenhouse gases that trap heat in the atmosphere, making the planet warm up. He said global climate data and reports of different international organisations also termed the year 2016 warmer than the previous years.

Meteorological data of minimum lowest temperature in December 2016 of other major cities of Punjab also showed an upward trend in the mercury. As per the data, Murree, which is the most visited winter tourist spot across the province has witnessed a sharp rise in lowest minimum temperature. Data showed that Murree’s lowest ever temperature was -10.5 but in December 2016, it was 1 degrees Celsius, in 2015 it was -4.5 degrees Celsius, in 2014 it was -2 degree Celsius, in 2013 it was -7.5 degrees Celsius, in 2012 it was -4.6 degrees Celsius and in 2011 it was -2.5 degrees Celsius.
Meteorological data of Islamabad (ZP) showed a very drastic increase in lowest minimum temperature, which was 1 degrees Celsius in December 2016 against the lowest ever temperature of -4.3 degrees Celsius. In 2015, lowest minimum temperature in the city was -0.5 degrees Celsius, in 2014 it was 0 degrees Celsius, in 2013 it was -2.7 degrees Celsius, in 2012 it was 1.5 degrees Celsius and in 2011 it was -1.5 degrees Celsius.

As per the data, lowest minimum temperature during December 2016 in Bahawalnagar was 7.9 degrees Celsius, which in 2015 was 5 degrees Celsius, in 2014 it was 3 degrees Celsius, in 2013 it was 4.5 degrees Celsius, in 2012 it was 2.7 degrees Celsius and in 2011 it was 3 degrees Celsius. Data showed that the lowest ever temperature recorded in Bahawalnagar was -1.1 degrees Celsius.

Meteorological figures showed that, lowest minimum temperature during December 2016 in DG Khan was 4.5 degrees Celsius, which in 2015 was 2.3 degrees Celsius, in 2014 it was 3.8 degrees Celsius, in 2013 it was 3.15 degrees Celsius, in 2012 it was 6.3 degrees Celsius and in 2011 it was 2.8 degrees Celsius. Data showed that the lowest ever temperature recorded in DG Khan was 2.3 degrees Celsius.
Data of Faisalabad showed that in December 2016 lowest minimum temperature of the city raised to 4.8 degrees Celsius while city’s lowest ever minimum temperature was -1.3 degrees Celsius. In December 2015, the city’s lowest minimum temperature was 3 degrees Celsius, in 2014 it was 1.2, in 2013 it was 1.5 degrees Celsius, in 2012 it was 2.5 degrees Celsius and in 2011 it was 0 degrees Celsius.

In Gujranwala, lowest ever temperature, which was 2.3 had increased to 5.8 in December 2016, meteorological data showed. In 2015, city’s minimum lowest temperature was 3.8 degrees Celsius, in 2014 it was 2.8 degrees Celsius, in 2013 it was 2.4 degrees Celsius and in 2012 it was 2.3 degrees Celsius.

Bahawalpur city’s lowest ever minimum temperature during the month of December was -1.3 degrees Celsius, data showed and revealed that in 2016 lowest minimum temperature of the city rose to 6.7 degrees Celsius, which in 2015 was 2.5 degrees Celsius, in 2014 was 1.7 degrees Celsius, in 2013 was 1.7 degrees Celsius, in 2012 was 3.0 degrees Celsius and in 2011 it was 1.4 degrees Celsius.
Data of Multan showed that, lowest minimum temperature during December 2016 was 7.5 degrees Celsius, which in 2015 was 4 degrees Celsius, in 2014 it was 1 degrees Celsius, in 2013 it was 2 degrees Celsius, in 2012 it was 5.2 degrees Celsius and in 2011 it was 0.5 degrees Celsius. Data showed that the lowest ever temperature recorded in Multan -1.1 degrees Celsius.

In Sahiwal, lowest ever temperature, which was 0.4 degrees Celsius had increased to 4.5 degrees Celsius in December 2016, meteorological data showed. In 2015, city’s minimum lowest temperature was 3 degrees Celsius, in 2014 it was 0.4 degrees Celsius, in 2013 it was 1.5 degrees Celsius, in 2012 it was 0.8 degrees Celsius and in 2011 it was 0.5 degrees Celsius.

Meteorological data of Sargodha showed that, lowest minimum temperature during December 2016 was 4 degrees Celsius, which in 2015 was 5.2 degrees Celsius, in 2014 it was 2.3 degrees Celsius, in 2013 it was 3 degrees Celsius, in 2012 it was 4.4 degrees Celsius and in 2011 it was 2.7 degrees Celsius. Data showed that the lowest ever temperature recorded in Sargodha 0.0 degrees Celsius.
Figures showed that, lowest minimum temperature during December 2016 in Sialkot was 4.5 degrees Celsius, which in 2015 was 2.8 degrees Celsius, in 2014 it was 1.8 degrees Celsius, in 2013 it was 0.8 degrees Celsius, in 2012 it was 3.4 degrees Celsius and in 2011 it was 1.0 degrees Celsius. Data showed that the lowest ever temperature recorded in Sialkot was -2 degrees Celsius.

As per data, lowest ever temperature of Jhelum was -3 degrees Celsius, which in December 2016 was 3.1 degrees Celsius, in 2015 it was 3.2 degrees Celsius, in 2014 it was 2.2 degrees Celsius, in 2013 it was 0.2 degrees Celsius, in 2012 it was 4.4 degrees Celsius and in 2011 it was 0.0 degrees Celsius.

Source: The News